Right now in San Jose, the question “Are prices about to fall more if I wait?” is really about risk management: are you better off selling into today’s slightly cooled but still seller‑leaning market, or holding and hoping for a better exit later.
Where prices actually are today
San Jose home values are still high by any historical standard, even after some softening. Estimates put the average home value around the mid‑$1.3M range, with the average sale price closer to the mid‑$1.4M range depending on neighborhood and data source. Citywide, single‑family homes are still, on average, selling a bit over list price (roughly 102–103% of asking in recent November data), which tells you buyers are still competing for well‑priced homes.
At the same time, pricing has clearly cooled off from the 2021 frenzy. Year‑over‑year city averages are basically “flat with noise” – some sources show a small decline in values of a few percent, others show a very modest increase in median sale price, and individual zip codes are moving in different directions. In other words, this is not a crash; it is a high plateau with minor ups and downs depending on micro‑market and property type.
What the short‑term trend looks like
Regionally, the Bay Area just logged one of the biggest annual price declines in California, driven by a combination of affordability ceilings, higher rates, and weaker sales volume. That sounds dramatic, but forecasts from statewide and Bay Area analysts still call for only mild price movement over the next 12 months: low single‑digit increases rather than double‑digit drops.
Locally in San Jose, inventory remains tight: recent analyses show active single‑family listings only in the high‑300s, with more homes going under contract each week than coming on the market. Typical time to sell is still in the mid‑teens to high‑teens in days on market, which is fast by national standards and consistent with a modest seller’s market, not a distressed one. As long as inventory stays this constrained, it is hard to get a steep price slide without a big economic shock.
What “waiting” probably changes (and what it doesn’t)
If you hold your home for 6–18 months, the most likely outcome, based on current projections, is small price movement rather than a big swing. Several 2025–2026 outlooks for San Jose and the broader Bay Area point to roughly 3–4% price growth per year, with mortgage rates trending down but not collapsing. That means you are more likely to see sideways or slightly higher prices than a sudden 10–20% correction under current assumptions.
However, even small changes affect net proceeds when you are talking about a $1.4M–$1.6M home. A 3% move either way is roughly $40K–$50K, and that is before you layer on carrying costs, property tax, and any repairs you postpone. So the realistic risk in waiting is not usually “losing hundreds of thousands” but giving up or gaining a mid‑five‑figure swing while you continue to hold the asset.
The bigger risk: getting the micro‑market wrong
The averages hide that some segments are under more pressure than others. Data for San Jose in 2025 shows, for example, some East/Central areas seeing mid‑single‑digit price declines, while parts of West San Jose and North Valley are still posting gains and healthy over‑ask ratios. Condos and townhomes with high HOA dues or obvious deferred maintenance tend to see more price cuts and longer days on market than move‑in‑ready single‑family homes in top school areas.
So the more precise version of your question should be: “In my neighborhood and price band, are buyers gaining leverage or are sellers still in control?” In some San Jose zip codes, clean, well‑priced listings are still getting multiple offers and closing above list in under three weeks; in softer pockets, over‑priced homes are sitting and then cutting. Your risk of “prices falling on you” is primarily a function of which bucket your property falls into.
How to make the decision as a seller
For a homeowner thinking about selling in the next 6 months, a practical way to frame it is:
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If you would definitely sell within 18–24 months anyway, listing into a still‑tight, mildly seller‑favored market where homes are closing over list and inventory is constrained is a defensible choice. You reduce the risk of an unexpected macro shock (tech layoffs, rate spike, recession) that could give buyers more leverage.
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If your timeline is very flexible and your home is in a strong, desirable segment (updated single‑family in a top school area with no big functional flaws), the odds are reasonable that your value will be similar or slightly higher a year from now, given current forecasts. In that case, lifestyle and tax planning may matter more than trying to time a 2–3% market move.
What does move the needle much more than guessing the macro trend is how you position the home. Homes priced correctly against the last 60–90 days of sales in their immediate micro‑market, presented clean and move‑in‑ready, are the ones still getting the strongest results in today’s San Jose market. Over‑reach the list price by even 3–5% and you risk chasing the market down with cuts, which does more damage to your net than any citywide price shift.
A practical next step
If you are genuinely on the fence, the most useful step is a micro‑market analysis scoped to your address:
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A pricing band based on the last 3–6 comparable sales within about a half‑mile, same school zone, and similar condition, plus any pending listings that look like your direct competition.
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Scenario modeling of “sell now at today’s comp‑based value” versus “hold 12 months with a modest 3–4% move and your carrying costs” so you see the real dollar impact.
That kind of data makes the abstract “Are prices going to fall on me?” question more concrete: you can see your likely net today versus your realistic range a year from now and decide based on your life plans, not just headlines.
At Omar Ruano Real Estate, we live inside this nuance every day—tracking micro-trends by neighborhood, watching how buyers respond to each price bracket, and seeing firsthand where expectations collide with reality. If you’re thinking about buying, selling, or just trying to make sense of your options over the next 12–24 months, you don’t need hype; you need clarity. Omar Ruano Real Estate is here to help you read the numbers, understand the trade-offs, and build a plan that fits your life, not just the headlines. When you’re ready to talk about your next move in San Jose, Omar Ruano Real Estate is ready to walk you through it—step by step, data first, no drama.
